I haven't tested to prove it yet, but I swear if you move around while quenching, or start quenching while you run up to the water the chance to break jumps up significantly. This is just from my experience in survival and could just be 100% cope. But it seems like every time I rushed and ran up holding right mouse it would instantly break, and as soon as I started standing still It would never break, or if it did it would be later on once the temperature dropped down. Maybe cope, maybe bug. I'm not sure.