Quenching shatter chance?

[Maelstrom]

So I finally got to iron and started quenching and tempering tools.  I have had almost half of my tools shatter (12 total and 5 have shattered) after quenching and tempering less than 4 times.  Shatter chance does not exceed 20%.  Methinks my RNG luck isn't THAT bad.

What say you?  Is the published shatter chances seem off to you?

[LadyWYT]

40 minutes ago, Maelstrom said:

What say you?  Is the published shatter chances seem off to you?

That seems a little high to me, so I'd say you've just gotten unlucky this time around. If you want to simplify the process though, I made a mod for that! 

https://mods.vintagestory.at/improvedquenching

It still retains some shatter risk for certain benefits, but overall it changes the system to a "one and done" process.

[Maelstrom]

Definitely will look at it tomorrow.  I spent 2 in game days just trying to get a pro pick and scythe.  pro pick broke once and the scythe broke 3 times!  one of them on the second quenching.  I always temper after quenching.  RNbeGeezus hates me.

[Rainbow Fresh]

I made my first iron chisel and it broke on the baseline 5% chance on the first ever attempt. Needless to say, a refunded replacement came straight out of the creative inventory and this shit is getting modded out.

[MKMoose]

6 hours ago, Maelstrom said:

So I finally got to iron and started quenching and tempering tools.  I have had almost half of my tools shatter (12 total and 5 have shattered) after quenching and tempering less than 4 times.  Shatter chance does not exceed 20%.  Methinks my RNG luck isn't THAT bad.

What say you?  Is the published shatter chances seem off to you?

First, calculating the survival chance of a tool only requires that you multiply the survival chance (1 - shatter chance) for each iteration. In your case, assuming you've tried quenching each of your tools 3 times, with a temper after each one (besides the last which doesn't matter), the overall survival chance is approximately 0.95 * 0.92 * 0.895 = ~0.78. For 12 tools, that gives you on average 12 * 0.78 = ~9.4 surviving tools.

Using a binomial distribution (for example with the Desmos Graphing Calculator - you can try something like this document to see different configurations yourself) for 12 tools with a 78% survival chance, we can calculate an ~10% chance that 5 or more out of 12 tools break (i.e. up to 7 favorable outcomes). Low but not terribly unusual, as far as probabilities go - it's twice the chance of breaking a tool on the first quenching.

Edited 6 hours ago by MKMoose

[Professor Dragon]

Well, my very first quenched item, my steel hammer (when I was just starting steel and didn't have a lot), shattered on that 5% chance.

"Typical" I thought.

I'm just doing a single Quench and one Durability buff now - I'm discouraged from trying more.

[Farmore]

Today on "Things about VS I am finding out for the first time through the forums":

Tools can shatter!?

I must be lucky. I've quenched dozens of tools and none of them have shattered. Watch my tools shatter the next time I quench.

[Dilan Rona]

11 hours ago, Maelstrom said:

So I finally got to iron and started quenching and tempering tools.  I have had almost half of my tools shatter (12 total and 5 have shattered) after quenching and tempering less than 4 times.  Shatter chance does not exceed 20%.  Methinks my RNG luck isn't THAT bad.

What say you?  Is the published shatter chances seem off to you?

as it is, my luck is just as bad, so i dont bother with water cooling freshly made iron/steel tools anymore. the risk of the new tool/weapon breaking, and you not getting anything back to recover the hard work put into making it, is not worth the effort

[Maelstrom]

13 minutes ago, Farmore said:

Today on "Things about VS I am finding out for the first time through the forums":

Tools can shatter!?

I must be lucky. I've quenched dozens of tools and none of them have shattered. Watch my tools shatter the next time I quench.

That depends.  You can quench copper and bronze tools without risk.  It isn't really quenching since there isn't a benefit from quenching those materials.

Quenching that provides a durability or "power" benefit is only for iron and steel tools.

[Maelstrom]

6 hours ago, MKMoose said:

First, calculating the survival chance of a tool only requires that you multiply the survival chance (1 - shatter chance) for each iteration. In your case, assuming you've tried quenching each of your tools 3 times, with a temper after each one (besides the last which doesn't matter), the overall survival chance is approximately 0.95 * 0.92 * 0.895 = ~0.78. For 12 tools, that gives you on average 12 * 0.78 = ~9.4 surviving tools.

Using a binomial distribution (for example with the Desmos Graphing Calculator - you can try something like this document to see different configurations yourself) for 12 tools with a 78% survival chance, we can calculate an ~10% chance that 5 or more out of 12 tools break (i.e. up to 7 favorable outcomes). Low but not terribly unusual, as far as probabilities go - it's twice the chance of breaking a tool on the first quenching.

Thank you for the mathematical explanation.   Just the thing I was hoping for.  You confirmed that I just have horrid RNG results.  pretty much par for the course in my life.

[Nathan Flaminio]

I had 8 out of 14 iron tools disintegrate on the first quench. I was pissed. 

Since then, the numbers had been a lot lower, but I downloaded LadyWYT's mod because it's too much effort for no return otherwise. 

It would be one thing if they broke and you could repair them, but losing out completely sucks (especially with steel). 

Love your mod @LadyWYT!

[Rainbow Fresh]

18 minutes ago, Maelstrom said:

That depends.  You can quench copper and bronze tools without risk.  It isn't really quenching since there isn't a benefit from quenching those materials.

Quenching that provides a durability or "power" benefit is only for iron and steel tools.

Wait, you can actually quench below-Iron things? That makes it even more stupid. Why can I have QoL speed-cooling on copper/bronze tier stuff but the moment we get to iron it's gambling or waiting?! I just thought you can't even interact with non-quenchable stuff.

[Maelstrom]

1 minute ago, Rainbow Fresh said:

Wait, you can actually quench below-Iron things? 

It's not really quenching.   It's just the old hiss of cooling metal in water, but there's no other effect to copper or bronze items.

[Rainbow Fresh]

Just now, Maelstrom said:

It's not really quenching.   It's just the old hiss of cooling metal in water, but there's no other effect to copper or bronze items.

Does it cool down? That is the only important thing.

[Maelstrom]

Just now, Rainbow Fresh said:

Does it cool down? That is the only important thing.

absolutely it does.  And there's no shatter chance for cooling copper and bronze items.

 

@LadyWYT I checked out your mod.   Great idea, but I want to make items that are solely high durability or a more customized mix of power and durability.  I'll just take my chances in the base game.